THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ
IS CLOSED
21 miles wide · 20 million barrels/day · Shut.
🔴 24+ SHIPS ATTACKED • 11 SEAFARERS KILLED • OIL $67→$119.50 PEAK, NOW ~$118 • INSURANCE CANCELLED • 46 SHIPS GONE DARK • 142 TRANSITS IN MARCH (vs 2,652 LAST YEAR) • 1,000+ SHIPS STUCK • IRAN CHARGING $2-3M/SHIP • US GAS $4.02/GAL • SAUDI PIPELINE: ~4M BBL/DAY • 31 DAYS OF CRISIS        🔴 24+ SHIPS ATTACKED • 11 SEAFARERS KILLED • OIL $67→$119.50 PEAK, NOW ~$118 • INSURANCE CANCELLED • 46 SHIPS GONE DARK • 142 TRANSITS IN MARCH (vs 2,652 LAST YEAR) • 1,000+ SHIPS STUCK • IRAN CHARGING $2-3M/SHIP • US GAS $4.02/GAL • SAUDI PIPELINE: ~4M BBL/DAY • 31 DAYS OF CRISIS
Intelligence Brief
BY THE NUMBERS
0
Barrels / Day (Hormuz Normal)
0
Global Oil Supply
0
Transited in March (vs 2,652 last yr)
—
Ships Stuck Waiting
0
Ships Gone Dark (AIS)
—
Saudi Pipeline (bbl/day)
—
US Gas Avg / Gallon
—
Oil / Barrel (Brent, Mar 31)
0
BBL Reserve (SPR)
Escalation
31 DAYS OF CRISIS
DAY 13
Feb 27 — Day 1
US Navy ships leave Bahrain. Fifth Fleet repositions ahead of strikes.
Feb 28 — Day 2
Operation Epic Fury. Supreme Leader Khamenei killed in US strike.
Mar 1 — Day 3
First ships attacked. MV Skylight hit — 2 seafarers killed.
Mar 2 — Day 4
IRGC announces formal closure. Zero tankers transit the Strait.
Mar 3 — Day 5
Iran drone swarm hits Qatar gas infrastructure. LNG supply severed.
Mar 4 — Day 6
IRGC claims "complete control" of Strait. Mines confirmed in shipping lanes.
Mar 5 — Day 7
Lloyd's, P&I clubs withdraw war risk insurance for Persian Gulf.
Mar 8 — Day 10
Brent crude breaks $100/barrel. Psychological barrier shattered.
Mar 9 — Day 11
Oil hits $119.50. Only 1 ship makes it through the Strait.
Mar 10 — Day 12
Iran deploys mines in shipping lanes. US Navy destroys 16 minelaying vessels.
Mar 11 — Day 13
3 commercial ships hit in 3 hours. Strait effectively impassable.
Incident Log
20+ SHIPS HIT
MAR 1
MV Skylight — Hit by IRGC missiles. 2 seafarers killed. First casualties.
MAR 1
MT Nissos Kea — Greek tanker struck. Crew evacuated.
MAR 2
Stena Imperative — Swedish-owned tanker seized, then released.
MAR 3
MV Pacific Venture — Hit during Qatar gas infrastructure attack wave.
MAR 4
2 vessels — Struck by IRGC fast-attack boats near Qeshm Island.
MAR 6
Mussafah 2 — UAE-flagged vessel. Sunk. 3 crew killed.
MAR 8
3 tankers — Damaged by mines in eastern shipping lane.
MAR 10
Mine warfare — US Navy destroys 16 IRGC minelaying vessels.
MAR 11
3 ships hit in 3 hours — Coordinated ASCM + drone + fast boat attack. 3 killed.
TOTAL
20+ vessels attacked or damaged · Multiple ships seized · Mines deployed across shipping lanes
8 SEAFARERS KILLED
AIS Tracking
THE VANISHING FLEET
82
DAILY SHIP TRANSITS
0–4 ships/day by March 9 · 46+ vessels switched off AIS transponders
AIS Navigation Metadata
MESSAGES IN A BOTTLE
🚢
ALL MUSLIMS ON BOARD
Source: Windward Maritime Intelligence
🚢
ALL CHINESE
Source: CSIS — Center for Strategic & International Studies
🚢
NO IL LINK
Source: Windward Maritime Intelligence
🚢
CHINA OWNER
Source: Bloomberg — vessel: Iron Maiden
Ships are writing survival messages into their navigation metadata.
Selective Blockade
CONDITIONAL PASSAGE
🤝 THE OFFER
Mar 5: IRGC announces strait closed only to US, Israel & Western allies
Mar 8: Confirmed again — non-Western ships "theoretically allowed"
China: Actively negotiating safe passage for tankers
India: Claims assurances after 3 FM calls — Iran denies deal
Mar 12: First crude carrier since war reaches Mumbai (Shenlong Suezmax)
💥 THE REALITY
Mayuree Naree — Thai-flagged. Set ablaze.
Safesea Vishnu — US-owned, Marshall Islands flag. Ablaze.
Mussafah 2 — UAE tugboat. Sunk while rescuing.
Ships of ALL flags continue to be attacked regardless of nationality
Iran ships its own crude to China through the same strait
Safe passage with one hand. Missiles with the other.
Selective Blockade
TEHRAN'S TOLLBOOTH
💰 THE TOLL
$2–3M
per ship, per transit
• Charged through IRGC intermediaries
• Payments in Chinese yuan (IRGC sanctioned by US/EU/UK)
• Parliament drafting formal toll legislation — rial-denominated
• "Safe corridor" through Iranian territorial waters near Larak Island
• Ships individually approved, visually verified, sequenced through
⚖️ THE LAW
UNCLOS VIOLATIONS
ARTICLE 38
Right of transit passage through international straits — cannot be suspended or conditioned
ARTICLE 44
Bordering states shall not hamper or suspend transit passage — tolls expressly prohibited
Iran has no legal right to charge for passage through an international strait. The UNCLOS framework doesn't include an exception for war.
"A protection racket backed by geography."
Brent Crude
OIL PRICE SURGE
$120
$100
$80
$60
$100 — PSYCHOLOGICAL BARRIER
Pre-crisis
baseline
IRGC threatens
to close strait
First strikes
2 seafarers killed
Qatar LNG
infrastructure hit
Insurance rates
spike 10x
$100 BROKEN
IEA emergency
PEAK $119.50
IRGC: "Expect $200/bbl"
Trump 48hr → dip $87
5-day pause — <$100
Iran rejects — ~$99
$67Feb 27
$72Feb 28
$77Mar 1
$83Mar 3
$88Mar 5
$100+Mar 8
$119.50Mar 9
$87Mar 22
<$100Mar 24
~$99Mar 25
War Risk Premium
THE INSURANCE KILL SWITCH
$125K
Feb 27
baseline
$200K
Mar 1
doubled
$400K
Mar 4
quadrupled
$500K+
Mar 5
"unpriceable"
CANCELLED
VOID
Mar 7
Lloyd's withdraws
WAR RISK PREMIUM — PER SHIP, PER TRANSIT
Every vessel entering the Strait pays this on top of standard hull insurance — just for the right to enter the waterway. A single tanker transit went from $125K to $500K+ in 7 days, then no insurer on Earth would write the policy.
No insurance = No ship owner risks a $100M+ vessel. The Strait doesn't need to be physically blocked — just uninsurable.
Aviation Impact
GROUNDED
WAVE 1 — THE BOMBS
7,700+
FLIGHTS CANCELED IN 3 DAYS
• Dubai airport closed 3 consecutive days
• Emirates, Etihad, Qatar Airways all suspended
• Airspace empty over 7 countries
• Worst travel chaos since Covid
WAVE 2 — THE OIL
+11%
US FARE INCREASE NEEDED
• Air New Zealand cut 1,100 flights through May
• Cathay Pacific: "fuel costs already doubled"
• Qantas, SAS, Thai Airways raising fares
• US carriers have no fuel hedging
The first wave of cancellations was the bombs. The second wave is the oil. The second wave isn't stopping.
Supply Chain
FROM STRAIT TO STORE
CRUDE OIL +70% $67 → $119/BBL 20M bbl/day severed FUEL +40% JET FUEL PRICE Diesel rationing begins Shipping costs +300% FERTILIZER +43% FERTILIZER PRICE Petrochemicals halted Plastics shortage FOOD +25% FOOD INFLATION Grain prices surge Bread shortages (MENA) EVERYTHING GLOBAL RECESSION Manufacturing halts Supply chains collapse REFINING PETROCHEMICALS AGRICULTURE MARKETS DAY 1 WEEK 1 WEEK 2-4 MONTH 2-3 MONTH 3+ ONE CHOKEPOINT BREAKS THE ENTIRE CHAIN
Strait Chokepoint
OIL FLOW — CONVERGE & CHOKE
Saudi Arabia 5.5M bbl/d Iraq 3.3M bbl/d UAE 2.8M bbl/d Kuwait 1.7M bbl/d Qatar 0.8M LNG STRAIT OF HORMUZ 20M bbl/d China 5M bbl/d 40% India 3M bbl/d 60% Japan 2.5M bbl/d 85% S. Korea 2M bbl/d 75% Europe 2M bbl/d 12% Singapore 1.5M bbl/d HUB US 1M bbl/d 5%
20M barrels/day — ALL funneled through one point. Cut it off and everything stops.
Alternative Routes
PIPELINE BYPASS
BYPASS CAPACITY vs HORMUZ NORMAL FLOW
~4M
Petroline (ramping)
current throughput (7M capacity)
1.5M
ADCOP (UAE)
max capacity
20M
Hormuz (normal)
now zero
BYPASS COVERS: ~42% of normal Hormuz flow (~5.5M / ~13M bbl/day through strait)
42% COVERED
COMBINED BYPASS ~5.5M BBL/DAY • LESS THAN HALF OF NORMAL HORMUZ FLOW
Critical Infrastructure
THE WATER CRISIS
90%
Kuwait — drinking water from desalination
70%
Saudi Arabia — drinking water from desalination
42%
UAE — drinking water from desalination
US STRIKE
Qeshm Island Desalination Plant
Cut water to 30 villages — still completely out of service. (Reuters, Mar 31)
IRAN DRONE STRIKE
Bahrain Desalination Plant
Direct drone strike on critical water infrastructure. Population of 1.5M at risk.
⚠️ NEAR MISS — JEBEL ALI STRIKES
Landed 12 miles from one of the world's largest desalination plants — Dubai's primary drinking water source
The oil story gets your attention. The water story is why this could become a humanitarian crisis.
The Math Problem
COST ASYMMETRY
🛸 SHAHED-136 DRONE
$20K–$50K
per unit
Iranian-manufactured
Mass production capability
Replaceable in days
60×
–
600×
cost ratio
🚀 INTERCEPTOR MISSILE
$3M–$12M
per intercept
Patriot PAC-3, SM-6
Limited inventory
Months to replenish
Iran can build them faster than anyone can shoot them down.
SOURCES: REUTERS • CSIS • CNBC
The Novel Angle
HORMUZ OIL DEPENDENCY
HORMUZ JAPAN 80%+ S. KOREA 80%+ TAIWAN 80%+ SINGAPORE ~70% INDIA 60% THAILAND ~55% CHINA 50% PHILIPPINES ~40% PAKISTAN ~35% BANGLADESH ~30% TURKEY ~30% EUROPE 14% UNITED STATES ~5% CRITICALLY DEPENDENT (50-80%+) MODERATE (30-49%) MINIMAL (<15%) CHOKEPOINT SOURCE
HORMUZ OIL DEPENDENCY BY REGION
The Novel Angle
WHO ACTUALLY GETS HURT?

🔴 South Korea / Japan / Taiwan

80%+
of oil imports pass through Hormuz
No meaningful alternative. Genuinely screwed.

🟢 United States

~5%
of oil imported from Persian Gulf (~2% transits Hormuz directly)
Largest oil producer on Earth. Price shock, not supply shock.
⚡ India has 22 days of reserves. Pakistan has 10. Japan and South Korea stretch to 3–6 months. The US has over a year. This isn't an American crisis — it's an Asian catastrophe.
Oil Dependency
HORMUZ IMPORT DEPENDENCY BY COUNTRY
Japan
80%+
South Korea
80%+
Taiwan
80%+
Singapore
~70%
India
60%
Thailand
~55%
China
50%
Philippines
~40%
Pakistan
~35%
Bangladesh
~30%
Turkey
~30%
Europe
14%
United States
~5%
84% of Hormuz crude goes to Asia · 0% goes to the US
Strategic Reserves
HOW LONG CAN THEY LAST?
🇵🇰 Pakistan
Reserves: ~minimal
Hormuz import: ~0.35M bbl/day
10
DAYS
🇮🇳 India
Reserves: ~65M bbl
Hormuz import: ~3M bbl/day
22
DAYS
🇸🇬 Singapore
Reserves: ~70M bbl
Hormuz import: ~0.9M bbl/day
78
DAYS
🇰🇷 South Korea
Reserves: ~200M bbl
Hormuz import: ~2.2M bbl/day
91
DAYS
🇨🇳 China
Reserves: ~950M bbl
Hormuz import: ~5.5M bbl/day
173
DAYS
🇯🇵 Japan
Reserves: ~470M bbl
Hormuz import: ~2.7M bbl/day
174
DAYS
🇺🇸 United States
SPR: ~400M bbl
Hormuz import: ~1M bbl/day
400
DAYS
🇪🇺 Europe (IEA)
Reserves: ~1.5B bbl
Hormuz import: ~2.5M bbl/day
600
DAYS
Worldwide
THE RIPPLE EFFECT
🇵🇭
Philippines
Government ordered 4-day work week to cut fuel consumption nationwide
🇪🇬
Egypt
All shops and restaurants mandated to close by 9 PM to reduce power usage
🇧🇩
Bangladesh
All universities closed indefinitely — fuel rationing triggered national education shutdown
🇪🇹🇰🇪🇿🇦
East & South Africa
Fuel rationing implemented across the region. Queues stretching hours at stations
🇦🇺
Australia
Free public transit rolled out in two states to offset rising fuel costs for commuters
🇹🇭
Thailand
Government ordered people to take stairs instead of elevators to reduce electricity demand
At the Pump
WHAT YOU'RE PAYING
US NATIONAL GAS AVERAGE — AAA
$4.02
per gallon
▲ $1.00
in one month
CALIFORNIA DIESEL
$7.00+
per gallon — a record high
FERTILIZER PRICES
+40%
during planting season — US farmers +$400–500/ton
DOE projects prices won't return to normal until 2027
AIS Intelligence
SHIP TRANSIT STATUS
90
ships transited since blockade
vs. 2,652 same period last year normally
~25 days into blockade
1,000+
ships stuck waiting
Anchorages across the region at capacity
$millions/day in demurrage fees
SHIP STATUS SINCE BLOCKADE (1 DOT = 20 SHIPS)
TRANSITED (90) STUCK / BLOCKED (1,000+)
SURVIVAL SIGNALS SHIPS ARE BROADCASTING
🚢 "ALL MUSLIMS ON BOARD"
🚢 "ALL CHINESE"
🚢 "NO IL LINK" (No Israel link)
🚢 "CHINA OWNER"
Iran selectively allowing passage for allied ships — China, Russia, non-Western flags.
Ships of ALL flags have still been attacked regardless. The "selective" blockade is not reliable.
Analysis
GOLDMAN SACHS SCENARIOS
Full 1-month closure, no offsets
+$15/bbl
Full closure + pipeline rerouting
+$12/bbl
Full closure + pipelines + reserves
+$10/bbl (base case)
50% closure + pipelines
+$4/bbl
Source: Goldman Sachs Research, March 2026
Live Situation
DIPLOMACY TIMELINE
Mar 22, 2026
Trump issues 48-hour ultimatum
Reopen the Strait or US power plants get hit. Oil dips to ~$87 on peace talk signal.
Mar 24, 2026
Trump announces 5-day strike pause
"Productive conversations" cited. Brent briefly drops below $100. Markets rally briefly.
Mar 25, 2026
Iran rejects ceasefire, demands sovereignty
Supreme Council demands formal recognition of Iran's sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz as precondition. Oil rebounds ~$99.
Ongoing
China backchannel negotiations
Beijing mediating for safe passage guarantees on Chinese-flagged vessels. No agreement reached.
PREDICTION MARKETS
Normal traffic by Apr 15
25%
Less than 25% probability — market consensus
Normal traffic by Jun 1
67%
~67% probability — market pricing in diplomatic resolution
⚠️ IRGC threat: "Expect $200/barrel"
Iran's position: sovereignty over the strait is non-negotiable. No partial deal possible.