THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ
IS CLOSED
21 miles wide · 20 million barrels/day · Shut.
🔴 16+ SHIPS ATTACKED • 8 SEAFARERS DEAD • OIL UP 70% ($67→$119) • INSURANCE CANCELLED • 46 SHIPS GONE DARK • 1,100+ GPS JAMMED • QATAR GAS SHUT DOWN        🔴 16+ SHIPS ATTACKED • 8 SEAFARERS DEAD • OIL UP 70% ($67→$119) • INSURANCE CANCELLED • 46 SHIPS GONE DARK • 1,100+ GPS JAMMED • QATAR GAS SHUT DOWN
Intelligence Brief
BY THE NUMBERS
0
Barrels / Day
0
Global Oil Supply
0
Ships Attacked
0
Seafarers Killed
0
Ships Gone Dark
0
GPS Signals Jammed
0
Oil Price Surge
—
Insurance Coverage
0
BBL Reserve (SPR)
Escalation
13 DAYS OF CRISIS
DAY 13
Feb 27 — Day 1
US Navy ships leave Bahrain. Fifth Fleet repositions ahead of strikes.
Feb 28 — Day 2
Operation Epic Fury. Supreme Leader Khamenei killed in US strike.
Mar 1 — Day 3
First ships attacked. MV Skylight hit — 2 seafarers killed.
Mar 2 — Day 4
IRGC announces formal closure. Zero tankers transit the Strait.
Mar 3 — Day 5
Iran drone swarm hits Qatar gas infrastructure. LNG supply severed.
Mar 4 — Day 6
IRGC claims "complete control" of Strait. Mines confirmed in shipping lanes.
Mar 5 — Day 7
Lloyd's, P&I clubs withdraw war risk insurance for Persian Gulf.
Mar 8 — Day 10
Brent crude breaks $100/barrel. Psychological barrier shattered.
Mar 9 — Day 11
Oil hits $119.50. Only 1 ship makes it through the Strait.
Mar 10 — Day 12
Iran deploys mines in shipping lanes. US Navy destroys 16 minelaying vessels.
Mar 11 — Day 13
3 commercial ships hit in 3 hours. Strait effectively impassable.
Incident Log
20+ SHIPS HIT
MAR 1
MV Skylight — Hit by IRGC missiles. 2 seafarers killed. First casualties.
MAR 1
MT Nissos Kea — Greek tanker struck. Crew evacuated.
MAR 2
Stena Imperative — Swedish-owned tanker seized, then released.
MAR 3
MV Pacific Venture — Hit during Qatar gas infrastructure attack wave.
MAR 4
2 vessels — Struck by IRGC fast-attack boats near Qeshm Island.
MAR 6
Mussafah 2 — UAE-flagged vessel. Sunk. 3 crew killed.
MAR 8
3 tankers — Damaged by mines in eastern shipping lane.
MAR 10
Mine warfare — US Navy destroys 16 IRGC minelaying vessels.
MAR 11
3 ships hit in 3 hours — Coordinated ASCM + drone + fast boat attack. 3 killed.
TOTAL
20+ vessels attacked or damaged · Multiple ships seized · Mines deployed across shipping lanes
8 SEAFARERS KILLED
AIS Tracking
THE VANISHING FLEET
82
DAILY SHIP TRANSITS
0–4 ships/day by March 9 · 46+ vessels switched off AIS transponders
IRAN UAE / OMAN 21mi KILL ZONE PERSIAN GULF GULF OF OMAN ● ACTIVE AIS   ● GONE DARK / ATTACKED
AIS Navigation Metadata
MESSAGES IN A BOTTLE
🚢
ALL MUSLIMS ON BOARD
Source: Windward Maritime Intelligence
🚢
ALL CHINESE
Source: CSIS — Center for Strategic & International Studies
🚢
NO IL LINK
Source: Windward Maritime Intelligence
🚢
CHINA OWNER
Source: Bloomberg — vessel: Iron Maiden
Ships are writing survival messages into their navigation metadata.
Selective Blockade
CONDITIONAL PASSAGE
🤝 THE OFFER
Mar 5: IRGC announces strait closed only to US, Israel & Western allies
Mar 8: Confirmed again — non-Western ships "theoretically allowed"
China: Actively negotiating safe passage for tankers
India: Claims assurances after 3 FM calls — Iran denies deal
Mar 12: First crude carrier since war reaches Mumbai (Shenlong Suezmax)
💥 THE REALITY
Mayuree Naree — Thai-flagged. Set ablaze.
Safesea Vishnu — US-owned, Marshall Islands flag. Ablaze.
Mussafah 2 — UAE tugboat. Sunk while rescuing.
Ships of ALL flags continue to be attacked regardless of nationality
Iran ships its own crude to China through the same strait
Safe passage with one hand. Missiles with the other.
Brent Crude
OIL PRICE SURGE
$120
$100
$80
$60
$100 — PSYCHOLOGICAL BARRIER
Pre-crisis
baseline
IRGC threatens
to close strait
First strikes
2 seafarers killed
Qatar LNG
infrastructure hit
Insurance rates
spike 10x
$100 BROKEN
IEA emergency
PEAK $119.50
Goldman worst-case
IEA releases 400M bbl
SPR + pipeline reroute
IRGC: "Expect
$200/barrel"
$67Feb 27
$72Feb 28
$77Mar 1
$83Mar 3
$88Mar 5
$100+Mar 8
$119Mar 9
$91Mar 11
War Risk Premium
THE INSURANCE KILL SWITCH
$125K
Feb 27
baseline
$200K
Mar 1
doubled
$400K
Mar 4
quadrupled
$500K+
Mar 5
"unpriceable"
CANCELLED
VOID
Mar 7
Lloyd's withdraws
WAR RISK PREMIUM — PER SHIP, PER TRANSIT
Every vessel entering the Strait pays this on top of standard hull insurance — just for the right to enter the waterway. A single tanker transit went from $125K to $500K+ in 7 days, then no insurer on Earth would write the policy.
No insurance = No ship owner risks a $100M+ vessel. The Strait doesn't need to be physically blocked — just uninsurable.
Aviation Impact
GROUNDED
WAVE 1 — THE BOMBS
7,700+
FLIGHTS CANCELED IN 3 DAYS
• Dubai airport closed 3 consecutive days
• Emirates, Etihad, Qatar Airways all suspended
• Airspace empty over 7 countries
• Worst travel chaos since Covid
WAVE 2 — THE OIL
+11%
US FARE INCREASE NEEDED
• Air New Zealand cut 1,100 flights through May
• Cathay Pacific: "fuel costs already doubled"
• Qantas, SAS, Thai Airways raising fares
• US carriers have no fuel hedging
The first wave of cancellations was the bombs. The second wave is the oil. The second wave isn't stopping.
Supply Chain
FROM STRAIT TO STORE
CRUDE OIL +70% $67 → $119/BBL 20M bbl/day severed FUEL +40% JET FUEL PRICE Diesel rationing begins Shipping costs +300% FERTILIZER +43% FERTILIZER PRICE Petrochemicals halted Plastics shortage FOOD +25% FOOD INFLATION Grain prices surge Bread shortages (MENA) EVERYTHING GLOBAL RECESSION Manufacturing halts Supply chains collapse REFINING PETROCHEMICALS AGRICULTURE MARKETS DAY 1 WEEK 1 WEEK 2-4 MONTH 2-3 MONTH 3+ ONE CHOKEPOINT BREAKS THE ENTIRE CHAIN
Analysis
GOLDMAN SACHS SCENARIOS
Full 1-month closure, no offsets
+$15/bbl
Full closure + pipeline rerouting
+$12/bbl
Full closure + pipelines + reserves
+$10/bbl (base case)
50% closure + pipelines
+$4/bbl
Source: Goldman Sachs Research, March 2026
Strait Chokepoint
OIL FLOW — CONVERGE & CHOKE
Saudi Arabia 5.5M bbl/d Iraq 3.3M bbl/d UAE 2.8M bbl/d Kuwait 1.7M bbl/d Qatar 0.8M LNG STRAIT OF HORMUZ 20M bbl/d China 5M bbl/d 40% India 3M bbl/d 60% Japan 2.5M bbl/d 85% S. Korea 2M bbl/d 75% Europe 2M bbl/d 12% Singapore 1.5M bbl/d HUB US 1M bbl/d 5%
20M barrels/day — ALL funneled through one point. Cut it off and everything stops.
The Novel Angle
HORMUZ OIL DEPENDENCY
HORMUZ JAPAN 80%+ S. KOREA 80%+ TAIWAN 80%+ SINGAPORE ~70% INDIA 60% THAILAND ~55% CHINA 50% PHILIPPINES ~40% PAKISTAN ~35% BANGLADESH ~30% TURKEY ~30% EUROPE 14% UNITED STATES ~5% CRITICALLY DEPENDENT (50-80%+) MODERATE (30-49%) MINIMAL (<15%) CHOKEPOINT SOURCE
HORMUZ OIL DEPENDENCY BY REGION
The Novel Angle
WHO ACTUALLY GETS HURT?

🔴 South Korea / Japan / Taiwan

80%+
of oil imports pass through Hormuz
No meaningful alternative. Genuinely screwed.

🟢 United States

~5%
of oil imported from Persian Gulf (~2% transits Hormuz directly)
Largest oil producer on Earth. Price shock, not supply shock.
⚡ India has 22 days of reserves. Pakistan has 10. Japan and South Korea stretch to 3–6 months. The US has over a year. This isn't an American crisis — it's an Asian catastrophe.
Oil Dependency
HORMUZ IMPORT DEPENDENCY BY COUNTRY
Japan
80%+
South Korea
80%+
Taiwan
80%+
Singapore
~70%
India
60%
Thailand
~55%
China
50%
Philippines
~40%
Pakistan
~35%
Bangladesh
~30%
Turkey
~30%
Europe
14%
United States
~5%
84% of Hormuz crude goes to Asia · 0% goes to the US
Strategic Reserves
HOW LONG CAN THEY LAST?
🇵🇰 Pakistan
Reserves: ~minimal
Hormuz import: ~0.35M bbl/day
10
DAYS
🇮🇳 India
Reserves: ~65M bbl
Hormuz import: ~3M bbl/day
22
DAYS
🇸🇬 Singapore
Reserves: ~70M bbl
Hormuz import: ~0.9M bbl/day
78
DAYS
🇰🇷 South Korea
Reserves: ~200M bbl
Hormuz import: ~2.2M bbl/day
91
DAYS
🇨🇳 China
Reserves: ~950M bbl
Hormuz import: ~5.5M bbl/day
173
DAYS
🇯🇵 Japan
Reserves: ~470M bbl
Hormuz import: ~2.7M bbl/day
174
DAYS
🇺🇸 United States
SPR: ~400M bbl
Hormuz import: ~1M bbl/day
400
DAYS
🇪🇺 Europe (IEA)
Reserves: ~1.5B bbl
Hormuz import: ~2.5M bbl/day
600
DAYS
Strategic Geography
THE WORLD'S CHOKEPOINTS
HORMUZ 20M bbl/day MALACCA 16M bbl/day SUEZ 5.5M bbl/day BAB EL-MANDEB 4.8M bbl/day PANAMA 0.9M bbl/day TURKISH STRAITS 3.1M bbl/day LOMBOK GIUK GAP CAPE OF GOOD HOPE Close one — the rest fall like dominos
Global Fragility
CHOKEPOINT DOMINOS
IRANOMAN
Strait of Hormuz
20M bbl/day · 21 miles wide
Connects Persian Gulf → Gulf of Oman
🔴 CLOSED
SUEZYEMEN
Suez Canal / Bab el-Mandeb
9M bbl/day · 205m wide
Houthi attacks ongoing since 2024
🟡 DISRUPTED
MALACCA
Strait of Malacca
16M bbl/day · 1.7 miles wide
Key route: Middle East → East Asia
🟢 OPEN
PANAMA
Panama Canal
1M bbl/day · 110ft wide
Drought-restricted since 2023
🟡 RESTRICTED
The world's shipping network has almost no redundancy. Two of four major chokepoints are now compromised.
Navigation
THE ONLY DETOUR
AFRICA GULF IRAN INDIA CHINA JAPAN S. KOREA NEW LEADER: MOJTABA KHAMENEI — MORE HARDLINE. FAMILY KILLED IN STRIKES. IRGC: "EXPECT $200 A BARREL." THIS STRAIT IS NOT REOPENING VOLUNTARILY. HORMUZ SUEZ ALSO DISRUPTED CAPE OF GOOD HOPE ✕ CLOSED +3,500 NM +10-14 DAYS ADDED INDIAN OCEAN ATLANTIC ARABIAN SEA NORMAL ROUTE (CLOSED) CAPE OF GOOD HOPE DETOUR SHIP IN TRANSIT

Normal Route

~1 DAY
Persian Gulf → Hormuz → Arabian Sea
❌ CLOSED

Cape Detour

+14 DAYS
+3,500 nautical miles around Africa
⚠️ ONLY OPTION
⚠️ Red Sea / Suez Canal ALSO disrupted by Houthi attacks — the "detour" route is itself compromised.
Strategic Reserves
GLOBAL RESERVE COVERAGE
400d USA 600d EUROPE 174d JAPAN 173d CHINA 91d S. KOREA 78d SINGAPORE 22d INDIA 10d PAKISTAN 180+ DAYS 30–90 DAYS 10–30 DAYS <10 DAYS — CRISIS
Strategic Reserves
THE GAP
The US and Europe can ride this out for months. India and Pakistan run dry in weeks.
Last Line of Defense
US STRATEGIC PETROLEUM RESERVE
BRYAN MOUNDBIG HILLW. HACKBERRYBAYOU CHOCTAWTXLAGULF OF MEXICO
SPR SALT CAVERN LOCATIONS — TX/LA GULF COAST
Total SPR Capacity
~400M barrels
Stored in salt caverns along the Gulf Coast · Only backfills ~50% of reduced capacity
FULL DRAWDOWN (4.4M bbl/day)
~90
DAYS
HORMUZ-ONLY LOSS (~1M bbl/day)
~400
DAYS
Bryan Mound
Brazoria County, Texas
~75M
barrels capacity
▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓░░░░ salt dome caverns
Big Hill
Jefferson County, Texas
~160M
barrels capacity
▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓░ salt dome caverns
West Hackberry
Cameron Parish, Louisiana
~110M
barrels capacity
▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓░░░ salt dome caverns
Bayou Choctaw
Iberville Parish, Louisiana
~55M
barrels capacity
▓▓▓▓▓░░░░░░░ salt dome caverns
⚠️ At peak draw rate (~4.4M bbl/day), the SPR could offset roughly half the Hormuz shortfall — but only for ~90 days. After that, the wells run dry.