THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ
IS CLOSED
21 miles wide · 20 million barrels/day · Shut.
🔴 24+ SHIPS ATTACKED • 11 SEAFARERS KILLED/MISSING • OIL PEAKED $119.50 NOW ~$106 • INSURANCE CANCELLED • 46 SHIPS GONE DARK • ~100 SHIPS TRANSITED IN 3+ WEEKS (vs 130/day) • 20,000 SEAFARERS STRANDED • IRAN DRAFTING TOLL LEGISLATION • SAUDI PIPELINE: 7M BBL/DAY DESIGN (3-4.5M PRACTICAL) • $3.98/GAL US GAS AVG        🔴 24+ SHIPS ATTACKED • 11 SEAFARERS KILLED/MISSING • OIL PEAKED $119.50 NOW ~$106 • INSURANCE CANCELLED • 46 SHIPS GONE DARK • ~100 SHIPS TRANSITED IN 3+ WEEKS (vs 130/day) • 20,000 SEAFARERS STRANDED • IRAN DRAFTING TOLL LEGISLATION • SAUDI PIPELINE: 7M BBL/DAY DESIGN (3-4.5M PRACTICAL) • $3.98/GAL US GAS AVG
Escalation
26 DAYS OF CRISIS
DAY 26
Feb 27 — Day 1
US Navy ships leave Bahrain. Fifth Fleet repositions ahead of strikes.
Feb 28 — Day 2
Operation Epic Fury. Supreme Leader Khamenei killed in US strike.
Mar 1 — Day 3
First ships attacked. MV Skylight hit — 2 seafarers killed.
Mar 2 — Day 4
IRGC announces formal closure. Zero tankers transit the Strait.
Mar 3 — Day 5
Iran drone swarm hits Qatar gas infrastructure. LNG supply severed.
Mar 4 — Day 6
IRGC claims "complete control" of Strait. Mines confirmed in shipping lanes.
Mar 5 — Day 7
Lloyd's, P&I clubs withdraw war risk insurance for Persian Gulf.
Mar 8 — Day 10
Brent crude breaks $100/barrel. Psychological barrier shattered.
Mar 9 — Day 11
Oil hits $119.50. Only 1 ship makes it through the Strait.
Mar 10 — Day 12
Iran deploys mines in shipping lanes. US Navy destroys 16 minelaying vessels.
Mar 11 — Day 13
3 commercial ships hit in 3 hours. Iraq shuts ALL oil ports. Thai bulk carrier Mayuree Naree set ablaze.
Mar 16–18
Energy infrastructure war: Iran hits Shah Gas Field & Fujairah. Israel strikes South Pars. Iran retaliates on Ras Laffan LNG hub.
Mar 22
Iran's letter to IMO: "non-hostile" ships may transit with Iranian authority coordination.
Mar 23
Trump announces 5-day strike pause on energy infrastructure.
Mar 26
Iran drafting legislation to charge formal tolls on all ships through the strait.
AIS Tracking
THE VANISHING FLEET
130
DAILY SHIP TRANSITS
0–4 ships/day by March 9 · 46+ vessels switched off AIS transponders
IRAN UAE / OMAN 21mi KILL ZONE PERSIAN GULF GULF OF OMAN ● ACTIVE AIS   ● GONE DARK / ATTACKED
AIS Navigation Metadata
MESSAGES IN A BOTTLE
🚢
ALL MUSLIMS ON BOARD
Source: Windward Maritime Intelligence
🚢
ALL CHINESE
Source: CSIS — Center for Strategic & International Studies
🚢
NO IL LINK
Source: Windward Maritime Intelligence
🚢
CHINA OWNER
Source: Bloomberg — vessel: Iron Maiden
Ships are writing survival messages into their navigation metadata.
Selective Blockade
CONDITIONAL PASSAGE
🤝 THE OFFER
Mar 22: Iran's IMO letter — "non-hostile" ships can transit with Iranian authority coordination
26 vessels on Iranian-approved route as of March 25 (ISW/Lloyd's List)
9 Chinese-linked ships, 6 India-destination ships got through
IRGC charging fees through intermediaries for transit (Lloyd's List, 3 sources)
Mar 26: Iran drafting formal toll legislation — claiming Hormuz as controlled territory
💥 THE REALITY
Mayuree Naree — Thai-flagged. Set ablaze.
Safesea Vishnu — US-owned, Marshall Islands flag. Ablaze.
Mussafah 2 — UAE tugboat. Sunk while rescuing.
Ships of ALL flags continue to be attacked regardless of nationality
Iran ships its own crude to China through the same strait
Safe passage with one hand. Missiles with the other.
Brent Crude
OIL PRICE SURGE
$120
$100
$80
$60
$100 — PSYCHOLOGICAL BARRIER
Pre-crisis
baseline
IRGC threatens
to close strait
First strikes
2 seafarers killed
Qatar LNG
infrastructure hit
Insurance rates
spike 10x
$100 BROKEN
IEA emergency
PEAK $119.50
Goldman worst-case
IRGC: "Expect
$200/barrel"
Trump 48hr
ultimatum → dip $87
5-day pause
Brent <$100 briefly
Iran rejects deal
~$106/bbl (Mar 26)
$67Feb 27
$72Feb 28
$77Mar 1
$83Mar 3
$88Mar 5
$100+Mar 8
$119.50Mar 9
$87Mar 22
<$100Mar 24
~$106Mar 26
War Risk Premium
THE INSURANCE KILL SWITCH
$125K
Feb 27
baseline
$200K
Mar 1
doubled
$400K
Mar 4
quadrupled
$500K+
Mar 5
"unpriceable"
CANCELLED
VOID
Mar 7
Lloyd's withdraws
WAR RISK PREMIUM — PER SHIP, PER TRANSIT
Every vessel entering the Strait pays this on top of standard hull insurance — just for the right to enter the waterway. A single tanker transit went from $125K to $500K+ in 7 days, then no insurer on Earth would write the policy.
No insurance = No ship owner risks a $100M+ vessel. The Strait doesn't need to be physically blocked — just uninsurable.
Aviation Impact
GROUNDED
WAVE 1 — THE BOMBS
23,000+
FLIGHTS CANCELED IN FIRST WEEK
• Dubai airport closed 3 consecutive days
• Emirates, Etihad, Qatar Airways all suspended
• Airspace empty over 7 countries
• Worst travel chaos since Covid
WAVE 2 — THE OIL
+11%
US FARE INCREASE NEEDED
• Air New Zealand cut 1,100 flights through May — 44,000 passengers affected
• Cathay Pacific: "fuel costs already doubled"
• Qantas, SAS, Thai Airways raising fares
• US carriers have no fuel hedging
The first wave of cancellations was the bombs. The second wave is the oil. The second wave isn't stopping.
Supply Chain
FROM STRAIT TO STORE
CRUDE OIL +70% $67 → $119/BBL 20M bbl/day severed FUEL +40% JET FUEL PRICE Diesel rationing begins Shipping costs +300% FERTILIZER +43% FERTILIZER PRICE Petrochemicals halted Plastics shortage FOOD +25% FOOD INFLATION Grain prices surge Bread shortages (MENA) EVERYTHING GLOBAL RECESSION Manufacturing halts Supply chains collapse REFINING PETROCHEMICALS AGRICULTURE MARKETS DAY 1 WEEK 1 WEEK 2-4 MONTH 2-3 MONTH 3+ ONE CHOKEPOINT BREAKS THE ENTIRE CHAIN
Oil Dependency
HORMUZ IMPORT DEPENDENCY BY COUNTRY
Japan
80%+
South Korea
80%+
Taiwan
80%+
Singapore
~70%
India
60%
Thailand
~55%
China
50%
Philippines
~40%
Pakistan
~35%
Bangladesh
~30%
Turkey
~30%
Europe
14%
United States
~5%
84% of Hormuz crude goes to Asia · 0% goes to the US
Strategic Reserves
HOW LONG CAN THEY LAST?
🇵🇰 Pakistan
Reserves: minimal — demand destruction
Source: BMI, March 19
11
DAYS
🇻🇳 Vietnam
Asking Japan & South Korea for help
Source: BMI / Reuters, March 19
23–29
DAYS
🇮🇳 India
Officials claim 74d capacity. Was 20-25d at war start.
Source: BMI, March 19
42–56
DAYS
🇨🇳 China
Biggest buffer among Asian importers
Source: BMI, March 19
~80
DAYS
🇰🇷 South Korea
Shifting to coal + nuclear to reduce exposure
Source: BMI, March 19
208
DAYS
🇯🇵 Japan
Released 80M barrels — record. PM confirmed to parliament.
Source: Nikkei/Mainichi, March 2
254
DAYS
Navigation
THE ONLY DETOUR
AFRICA GULF IRAN INDIA CHINA JAPAN S. KOREA NEW LEADER: MOJTABA KHAMENEI — MORE HARDLINE. FAMILY KILLED IN STRIKES. IRGC: "EXPECT $200 A BARREL." THIS STRAIT IS NOT REOPENING VOLUNTARILY. HORMUZ SUEZ ALSO DISRUPTED CAPE OF GOOD HOPE ✕ CLOSED +3,500 NM +10-14 DAYS ADDED INDIAN OCEAN ATLANTIC ARABIAN SEA NORMAL ROUTE (CLOSED) CAPE OF GOOD HOPE DETOUR SHIP IN TRANSIT

Normal Route

~1 DAY
Persian Gulf → Hormuz → Arabian Sea
❌ CLOSED

Cape Detour

+14 DAYS
+3,500 nautical miles around Africa
⚠️ ONLY OPTION
⚠️ Red Sea / Suez Canal ALSO disrupted by Houthi attacks — the "detour" route is itself compromised.
Alternative Routes
PIPELINE BYPASS
SAUDI ARABIA UAE IRAN OMAN KWT IRAQ RED SEA GULF OF OMAN PERSIAN GULF HORMUZ BLOCKED ABQAIQ YANBU PETROLINE (EAST-WEST) 750 MI • 1.7M → 7M DESIGN (3-4.5M PRACTICAL) HABSHAN FUJAIRAH HABSHAN-FUJAIRAH (ADCOP) 248 MI • 1.5-1.8M BBL/DAY PETROLINE (SAUDI) ADCOP (UAE) HORMUZ (BLOCKED)
BYPASS CAPACITY vs HORMUZ NORMAL FLOW
7M
Petroline (design cap)
Yanbu terminal limits: 3-4.5M actual
1.8M
ADCOP (UAE)
max capacity
20M
Hormuz (normal)
now zero
BYPASS COVERS: 42% of normal Hormuz flow (~8.5M / 20M bbl/day)
42% COVERED
COMBINED BYPASS ~8.5M BBL/DAY • STILL 11.5M BBL/DAY UNACCOUNTED FOR
Live Situation
DIPLOMACY TIMELINE
Mar 22, 2026
Trump issues 48-hour ultimatum
Reopen the Strait or US power plants get hit. Oil dips to ~$87 on peace talk signal.
Mar 24, 2026
Trump announces 5-day strike pause
"Productive conversations" cited. Brent briefly drops below $100. Markets rally briefly.
Mar 25, 2026
Iran rejects ceasefire, demands sovereignty
Iran's 5 conditions: stop attacks, reparations, Hormuz sovereignty recognition, end attacks on allies, prevention mechanism. Oil rebounds ~$106.
Ongoing
China backchannel negotiations
Beijing mediating for safe passage guarantees on Chinese-flagged vessels. No agreement reached.
PREDICTION MARKETS
Normal traffic by Apr 15
25%
Less than 25% probability — market consensus
Normal traffic by Jun 1
67%
~67% probability — market pricing in diplomatic resolution
⚠️ IRGC threat: "Expect $200/barrel"
Iran's position: sovereignty over the strait is non-negotiable. No partial deal possible.
Strategic Reserves
GLOBAL RESERVE COVERAGE
400d USA 600d EUROPE 254d JAPAN ~80d CHINA 208d S. KOREA 78d SINGAPORE 42-56d INDIA 11d PAKISTAN 180+ DAYS 30–90 DAYS 10–30 DAYS <10 DAYS — CRISIS